Women’s State of Origin Game 1 Stats Preview

The reigning Women’s State of Origin champions, New South Wales will be looking to kick start their 2026 campaign with a win against Queensland at McDonald Jones Stadium.

This stats preview will run through team match-ups, H2H Origin results, best try scorers and player of the match betting predictions ahead of Origin Game 1.

Women’s State of Origin Game 1 teams

New South Wales

FB Abbi Church RW Jaime Chapman RC Jessica Sergis LC Isabelle Kelly LW Jayme Fressard FE Jocelyn Kelleher HB Jesse Southwell PR Millie Elliott HK Keeley Nazzi PR Ellie Johnston RSR Tiana Penitani-Gray LSR Yasmin Meakes LK Olivia Kernick INT: 14. Olivia Higgins 15. Kennedy Cherrington 16. Kezie Apps 17. Teagan Berry

New South Wales have made two changes to their starting line up from Game 3 last year, with Jocelyn Kelleher starting in the halves alongside Jesse Southwell. Millie Elliott will also play her first game since 2024, starting at prop. Last year’s NSW five-eighth Tiana Penitani-Gray has moved to right 2nd row, with Kezie Apps moving back to the bench.

Kelleher should feel free right at home running the left side attack for NSW, with fellow Roosters’ team-mates Isabelle Kelly and Jayme Fressard lining up on the left edge. Kelleher had 7 try assists and 13 line break assists in her 13 games for the Roosters last season in NRLW.

Emma Verran, Sarah Togatuiki and Simaima Taufa have all dropped out of the side. Whilst try-scoring freak, Teagan Berry gets her chance to shine in a Sky Blues jumper coming off the bench.

Queensland

FB Tamika Upton LW Julia Robinson LC Rory Owen RC Ivana Lolesio RW Phoenix-Raine Hippi FE Chantay Kiria-Ratu HB Lauren Brown PR Makenzie Weale HK Jada Ferguson PR Jessika Elliston LSR Sienna Lofipo RSR Romy Teitzel LK Keilee Joseph INT: 14. Emma Manzelmann 15. Otesa Pule 16. Chelsea Lenarduzzi 4. Shenae Ciesiolka

Queensland have had 3 huge omissions in their 2026 Origin squad, with star players Ali Brigginshaw (retired), Tarryn Aiken (ACL) and Hayley Maddick (withdrawn) all missing this series.

Last year’s Dally M Medalist, Tamika Upton returns to fullback for Queensland in place of Maddick. Whilst the the 2023 Titans’ Grand-Final halves, Chantay Kiria-Ratu and Lauren Brown will combine in the #6 and #7 for the Maroons.

Keilee Joseph takes over Ali Brigginshaw’s vacant 13 jersey; whilst the inclusions of Emma Manzelmann and Otesa Pule will look to add some punch off the bench.

Ivana Lolesio is a late inclusion in the starting line up at right centre, pushing Shenae Ciesiolka to the bench. Lolesio is coming off her first NRLW season, where she played 12 games for the Titans scoring a try, making 5 assists and 101 metres per game. Most impressively is she had a 91% tackle efficiency.

Women’s State of Origin Game 1 Prediction

Women’s State of Origin Stats

• NSW won last year’s Origin series 2-1, with both wins by 20 points
• QLD have won both Origin games at McDonald Jones
• NSW have won 3 of the last 4 Game 1s
• QLD have won 4 of the last 6 Origin games as underdogs
• Total points have gone under 38.5 in 11/13 games since 2018

New South Wales come into the match as overwhelming favourites, after naming a mostly-unchanged line up and dominating last year’s series with two wins by 20 points.

NSW have started an Origin series strongly, defeating QLD by 10 or more points in Game 1 in 3 of the last 4 years.

But don’t count out Queensland. They have won both Origin games played at McDonald Jones Stadium by 4 points or less (G2 2024, G3 2025).

They have also won 4 of their last 6 games as an underdog. In their last meeting, they were $5.00 outsiders and came back from 14-6 down to win 18-14.

The total points have also gone under in 11 of the 13 State of Origin games since 2018. In fact, since 2021, only Game 1 of last year has gone over the 38.5 points handicap tonight.

Women’s State of Origin Game 1 Tryscorers

Tamika Upton | QLD | Fullback

When Tamika Upton is on the field, she is always a chance of scoring. She is the all-time leading try scorer in the NRLW, scoring 20 tries in 13 games last season alone.

She also loves playing at McDonald Jones Stadium, scoring at her former home venue in 5 consecutive appearances.

In the Origin arena, NSW have done pretty well to shut her down. She has scored 3 tries in her last 6 games for QLD, including in her last appearance in Game 2.

Jayme Fressard | NSW | Left Wing

Jayme Fressard became the first woman to score in all 3 games of a State of Origin series last year, crossing for 4 tries in her 3 starts at left wing.

Her club form was just as good, making 8 line breaks in 8 games, and converting 5 of those breaks into tries.

She will feel at home with fellow Roosters’ team mates, Isabelle Kelly and Jocelyn Kelleher as her left centre and left half.

Jessica Sergis | NSW | Right Centre

Jessica Sergis has scored 4 tries in her 12 State of Origin appearances, including a try in 2 of her 3 games last series.

With last year’s NRLW Halfback of the Year, Jesse Southwell, on her side of the field, she looks set to get plenty of possession.

She scored 8 tries in 13 NRLW games last season, which was the equal most by a centre.

Romy Teitzel | QLD | Right 2nd Row

Queensland scored 50% of their tries last series in Romy Teitzel’s attacking channel last season; with the right 2nd rower cashing in for one herself.

Lauren Brown will be taking charge of the halves, with Tarryn Aitken and Ali Brigginshaw out. She led the comp in assists in 2023, when she played halves alongside Chantay Kiria-Ratu.

To top that, Tamika Upton will also get plenty of touches and teamed up for 4 tries with Teitzel last season at the Broncos.